PHILOSOPHICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL FOUNDATIONS OF SOCIAL FORECASTING

UDC 101.1:316+111.6

 

Kravtsov Oleg Yurievich – Master of Sciences, External doctorate student. National Institute of Education (16, Korolya str., 220004, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: kravtsov_78@mail.ru

 

 

Key words: social forecasting, the basis of social forecasting, philosophical and methodological basis, predictive potential, social forecast.

For citation: Kravtsov O. Y. Philosophical and methodological foundations of social forecasting. Proceedings of BSTU, issue 6, History, Philosophy, 2024, no. 1 (281). pp. 164–168 (In Russian). DOI: 10.52065/2520-6885-2024-281-30.

Abstract

The article analyzes the prognostic potential of the main socio-philosophical concepts, which are considered as philosophical and methodological foundations of social forecasting. The relevance of the research is due to the need to improve the quality of forecasting current social processes, foreseeing future changes, and consciously influencing the course of social development. The paper reveals the essence of the cognitive practice of scientific forecasting, characterizes the philosophical foundations of social forecasting, analyzes the main socio-philosophical concepts and approaches from the perspective of their predictive capabilities, and formulates the main trends and directions of the civilizational development. Social forecasting is considered as a cognitive practice aimed at cognition of possible future states of social systems, the interest in which is due to the natural inner need of a person to anticipate the consequences of their own activities. It is noted that the performers of forecasts are the product of a certain type of social environment and a priori act as carriers of its inherent attitudes. In this regard, the constant dialectical interdependence between the philosophical and ideological components of the consciousness of the forecasting subject, his conceptual and methodological preferences and the results of social forecasting is emphasized. Among the properties of the forecast, its ability to form ideas about the possible future at the level of mass consciousness and influence individual and group behavior is indicated. The philosophical and methodological foundations of social forecasting include scientific concepts, theories, approaches and ways of knowing possible future states. The integrative forecast conclusions show a significant weakening of the global centripetal trend, which is inferior to the processes of separation of social systems on value and ideological grounds.

 

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02.05.2024