APPLICATION OF FUZZY CALCULATIONS TO TEST HYPOTHESES BASED ON A MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE PROCESS OF CONTAMINATION OF THE GEOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT AS A RESULT OF AN EMERGENCY SPILL OF OIL PRODUCTS

UDC 502.5

  • Burmakova Anastasia Vladimirovna – Phd student, the Department of Information Systems and Technologies. Belarusian State Technological University. (13a, Sverdlova str., 220006, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: burmakova@belstu.by

  • Smelov Vladimir Vladislavovich – PhD (Engineering), Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Information Systems and Technologies. Belarusian State Technological University (13a, Sverdlova str., 220006, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: smw@belstu.by

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52065/2520-2669-2021-242-2-36-42

Key words: mathematical model, decision support systems, hypothesis testing, fuzzy calculations, ecology, oil products, expert system.

For citation: Burmakova A. V., Smelov V. V. Application of fuzzy calculations to test hypotheses based on a model for predict-ing the process of contamination of the geological environment as a result of an emergency spill of oil products. Proccedings of BSTU, issue 3, Physics and Mathematics. Informatics, 2021, no. 1 (242), pp. 36–42 (In Russian). DOI: https://doi.org/10.52065/2520-2669-2021-242-2-36-42.

Abstract

The activity of any expert, in most cases, can be reduced to the formulation of hypotheses and assessments of their reliability. In this case, the conditions under which the reliability of the formulated hypotheses increases or decreases are of interest

The article is devoted to the method of hypothesis testing in conditions of uncertainty using the theory of fuzzy sets in an expert system designed to support decision-making on the choice of efficient, from the point of view of ecology, technologies for the rehabilitation of the geological environment. The expert system is based on a model for predicting the consequences of an emergency spill of oil products. The model is complex and includes four levels: surface, soil, groundwater and groundwater level. The model describes the process of vertical penetration of oil products and horizontal spread at the surface level (spreading) and movement with groundwater. The article tests the hypothesis that the oil product reaches the ground in conditions of unreliability of the initial data, and calculates the assessment of the reliability of the result.

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References

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08.02.2021