THE METHODOLOGY FOR FORECASTING THE PROGRESSION OF FOREST FIRES BASED ON GEOINFORMATION SYSTEMS

UDC 630*431

Pushkin Andrey Aleksandrovich – PhD (Agriculture), Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Forest Inventory. Belarusian State Technological University (13a Sverdlova str., 220006, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: pushkin@belstu.by

Kotsan Vladimir Vasil’evich – PhD (Agriculture), Associate Professor, Assistant professor, the Department of Forest Inventory. Belarusian State Technological University (13a Sverdlova str., 220006, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: Wolodia250@belstu.by

Tolkach Igor Vladimirovich − PhD (Agriculture), Associate Professor, Assistant Professor, the Department of Forest Inventory. Belarusian State Technological University (13a Sverdlova str., 220006, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: i.tolkach@belstu.by

Sidelnik Nikolai Yaroslavovich – PhD (Agriculture), Senior Lecturer, the Department of Forest Inventory. Belarusian State Technological University (13a Sverdlova str., 220006, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: sidelnik@belstu.by

Sevruk Pavel Vladimirovich – PhD (Agriculture), Senior Lecturer, the Department of Forest Inventory. Belarusian State Technological University (13a Sverdlova str., 220006, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: sevrukpv@belstu.by

 

DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.52065/2519-402X-2025-288-1.

Key words: forest fire, mathematical model, meteorological indicators, fuel moisture index, forestrytaxation stands characteristics, elliptical model, software package.

For citation: Pushkin A. A., Kotsan V. V., Tolkach I. V., Sidelnik N. Ya., Sevruk P. V. The methodology for forecasting the progression of forest fires based on geoinformation systems. Proceedings of BSTU, issue 1, Forestry. Nature Management. Processing of Renewable Resources, 2025, no. 1 (288), pp. 5–14 (In Russian). DOI: 10.52065/2519-402X-2025-288-1.

Abstract

The algorithm for modeling low forest fires, which is the basis of the methodological recommendations for forecasting the progression of forest fires, taking into account data on the state of forest areas and meteorological conditions are describes in this article. The algorithm was developed on the basis of materials on the locations of the real ignitions, examined in nature. The detailed description of the forest fires that occurred in the forest fund of the Republic of Belarus for the period 2018–2022 has been collected into the database. The developed modeling algorithm consists of three stages: determination of the moisture fuel based on factual meteorological conditions, determination of the speed of the forest fire depending on the pyrological characteristics of the fuel and weather conditions, and determination of parameters and parameters of the elliptical model of the forest fire spread. The presented algorithm is based on the principle of the Canadian forecast model of forest fire dynamics with modifications by the authors of the article and adaptation to the conditions of the Republic of Belarus. Based on the methodological recommendations, the software package has been developed that simulates a graphical representation of the progression of the forest fire on the geospatial basis. Further improvement of computational algorithms, taking into account subsequent updates of the database, which includes new information about fires occurring in the forest fund, will increase the accuracy of the spatial-temporal modeling of the possible progression of forest fires.

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