ANALYSIS OF PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS METHODS AND SUBSTANTIATES OF THEIR APPLICATION FOR FORECASTING THE CONSEQUENCES OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE FOREST FUND

UDC 630*2:502.174

 

Evkovich Irina Aleksandrovna – postgraduate student, the Department of Logging Machinery, Forest Roads and Timber Production Technology. Belarusian State Technological University (13a, Sverdlova str., 220006, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: evcovich.irina@mail.ru

Protas Pavel Aleksandrovich – PhD (Engineering), Associate Professor, Assistant Professor, the Department of Logging Machinery, Forest Roads and Timber Production Technology. Belarusian State Technological University (13a, Sverdlova str., 220006, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: protas@belstu.by

 

DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.52065/2519-402X-2024-282-20.

 

Key words: forest fund, natural disasters, forecasting, liquidation of consequences, mathematical methods, stochastic game theory.

For citation: Evkovich I. A., Protas P. A. Analysis of predictive analytics methods and substantiates of their application for forecasting the consequences of natural disasters in the forest fund. Proceedings of BSTU, issue 1, Forestry. Nature Management. Processing of Renewable Resources, 2024, no. 2 (282), pp. 167–173 (In Russian). DOI: 10.52065/2519-402X-2024-282-20.

Abstract

In this scientific work, the analysis of predictive analytics methods is carried out and their application to predict the consequences of natural disasters in the forest fund is justified. The study shows that the use of predictive analytics methods makes it possible to effectively predict the possible consequences of natural changes in forests, which, in turn, makes it possible to take timely measures to prevent impacts on the forest fund. The work examines various approaches to forecasting elementary management methods and recommends using an integrated approach using modern technologies in the field of analytics and machine learning to achieve the best results. Based on the conducted research, the article recommends using mathematical analysis methods based on game theory, taking into account the Savage and Wald criteria, to assess and predict the consequences of natural disasters in the forest fund. Using this forecasting method, you can, for example, study the historical experience of an enterprise, conduct statistical modeling and plan the result of its work based on the obtained model. The analysis of software methods has shown that the use of the MatLab package is appropriate and its use makes it possible to effectively solve problems in the field of forecasting the consequences of natural disasters in the forest fund, taking into account many factors when building a mathematical model in game theory. The software package allows you to process large amounts of data, build trend lines, etc. The convenience of the interface, the extensive capabilities of this software package for processing the results of scientific research and their graphical illustration can significantly reduce the processing time of experimental data, as well as avoid errors in calculations.

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15.03.2024