BUILDING MATERIALS INDUSTRY FORECAST-BASED SHORT-TERM PRODUCTION PLAN DEVELOPMENT TOOLKIT

UDC 338.984:666

 

Sabaleuski Aliaksandr Syargeyevich – Senior Lecturer, the Department of Production Organization and Real Estate Economics. Belarusian State Technological University (13a, Sverdlova str., 220006, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: a.sobolevski@belstu.by

DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.52065/2520-6877-2024-280-18.

 

Key words: planning, forecasting, synchronization, building materials industry, construction, index, time series.

For citation: Sabaleuski A. S. Building materials industry forecast-based short-term production plan development toolkit. Proceedings of BSTU, issue 5, Economics and Management, 2024, no. 1 (280), pp. 141–147.

DOI: 10.52065/2520-6877-2024-280-18.

 

Abstract

The article considers the methods and tools for the short-term planning of the production and economic activity of the building materials industry of the Republic of Belarus. The building materials industry is currently facing difficulties in the marketing of production. The solution these problems requires the coordination of the production of the building materials with their consumption by the construction industry. The high seasonality of the both considered sectors requires synchronization of the plans for the production of building materials and their consumption in construction. The planning is proposed to be based on the forecasting of the activities of the industries. The forecast of production is checked for compliance with the requirements of construction. In case of their inconsistency the numerical values of the differences and the months when they appear are revealed and specific measures to change the forecast of production of building materials for it to be coordinated with the construction are planned. A software tool has been developed to calculate the forecasts of the two sectors and check their synchronization. The average forecast accuracy indices is 3.17% for the building materials industry and 7.44% for the construction, that is rather high. The developed planning toolkit is proposed to be used by the planning authorities of the Ministry of Architecture and Construction of the Republic of Belarus.

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19.02.2024