DYNAMIC SIMULATION USING A GAUSSIAN INFECTION MODEL PRIMARY CLOUD IN CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS

UDC 614.833.3,614.833.4,614.841.412,614.841.412,614.841.43

 

Kotov Dmitry Sergeevich – PhD (Engineering), Assistant Professor, Scientific Secretary. SIUE “Geoinformation systems” (6, Surganova str., 220012, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: viscount.d@gmail.com

Novikov Evgeniy Vladimirovich – PhD (Engineering), Assistant Professor, Director. Institute of Modern Communication Technologies of the Belarusian State Academy of Communications (8/2, Francysk Skaryna str., 220006, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: eugennovikov@gmail.com

Kotov Sergey Grigorievich – PhD (Engineering), Assistant Professor, Leading Researcher, State Institution “Belarusian Institute of System Analysis and Information Support for the Scientific Sphere” (7, Pobediteley Ave., 220006, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: kotov@belisa.org.by

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52065/2520-6141-2024-278-2.

 

Key words:  algorithm, infection, changing weather conditions, modeling, primary cloud.

For citation: Kotov D. S., Novikov E. V., Kotov S. G. Dynamic simulation using a Gaussian infection model primary cloud in changing weather conditions. Proceedings of BSTU, issue 3, Physics and Mathematics. Informatics, 2024, no. 1 (278), pp. 11–17 (In Russian). DOI: 10.52065/2520-6141-2024-278-2.

Abstract

Dynamic modeling of accident development is based on two options for storing a hazardous substance at a hazardous production facility: in a gaseous state and in a liquid phase. For each of these options, two types of release are considered: salvo and long-lasting. The work considers the first scenario - the complete destruction of equipment containing a gaseous hazardous substance and the formation of a primary cloud. Forecasting of infection for first and weather conditions is carried out in a coordinate system, the center of which is located on the surface of the earth at the site of equipment destruction, the Ox axis is directed downwind, the Oy axis is perpendicular to the wind, the Oz axis is perpendicular to the plane of the earth, and which is associated with a topographic map. For the second weather conditions, a coordinate system is also used, in which the Ox axis is directed downwind, the Oy axis is perpendicular to the wind, and the Oz axis is perpendicular to the plane of the earth. The coordinate system for the second weather conditions is connected to the coordinate system for the first conditions through the point of maximum concentration at the end of the first and the beginning of the second weather conditions. At the same time, to begin the second weather conditions, the size of the primary cloud of a hazardous substance in the Gaussian model at the initial time is specified, which allows calculations for the second weather conditions to be based on the Toxi-2 method. This allows you to create an algorithm for dynamic modeling of infection using a Gaussian model by a primary cloud for changing weather conditions.

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26.12.2023