DETERMINATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN THE “ENERGY” SECTOR ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS IN THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS

UDC 501

  • Melekh Dzmitry Vladimirovich − Deputy Head of the Department of International Scientific Cooperation. Republican Research Unitary Enterprise “Belarusian Research Center “Ecology” (76, Yakubova str., 220095, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: melekhdima@gmail.com

  • Gonchar Kristina Viktorovna – Researcher of the Department of International Scientific Cooperation. Republican Research Unitary Enterprise “Belarusian Research Center “Ecology” (76, Yakubova str., 220095, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: gonchar.kristina@mail.ru

  • Narkevitch Ivan Petrovich – DSc (Engineering), Associate Professor, Head of the Department of International Scientific Cooperation. Republican Research Unitary Enterprise “Belarusian Research Center “Ecology” (76, Yakubova str., 220095, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: ivan.narkevitch@mail.ru

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52065/2520-2669-2021-241-1-211-227

Keywords: greenhouse gases, uncertainty assessment, emission factors, probability density function.

For citation: Melekh D. V., Gonchar K. V., Narkevitch I. P. Determination of the influence of the uncertainty of greenhouse gas emissions in the “Energy” sector on the overall assessment of the uncertainty of the greenhouse gas inventory emissions and removals in the Republic of Belarus. Proceedings of BSTU, issue 2, Chemical Engineering, Biotechnologies, Geoecology, 2021, no. 1 (241), pp. 211–227 (In Russian). DOI: https://doi.org/10.52065/2520-2669-2021-241-1-211-227.

<h3Abstract

The annual inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals, which is carried out by the Republic of Belarus within the framework of the obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), should comply a number of requirements, including uncertainty estimates that ensure the completeness of the inventory.

Purpose: to identify the constituent parts of the uncertainty estimate for the Energy sector, such as the uncertainties of emission factors and activity data, followed by an assessment of the trend uncertainty and the general inventory uncertainty to determine the impact on it of the Energy sector.

Methods: 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines, namely Volume 1 “General Guidance and Reporting” and Volume 2 “Energy”, applied taking into account the national circumstances of the Republic of Belarus.

Results: uncertainties of emission factors and activity data for the Energy sector are described and substantiated for the first time; the assessment of the trend uncertainty and the general inventory uncertainty of GHG emissions and removals for the current year was carried out, with the justification of the choice of the approach to the uncertainty assessment. The impact of the “Energy” sector on the overall uncertainty was estimated for the first time.

Conclusion: the performed estimates of the trend uncertainty and the general inventory uncertainty of GHG emissions and removals ensure compliance with the UNFCCC requirements. The share of natural gas in the country's energy balance is more than 90%, and the CO2 emission factor from its combustion has a low degree of uncertainty, which, along with a highly developed system of state statistics, organizes a reduction in the uncertainty of the general inventory.

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