FORECASTING THE CONSEQUENCES OF NATURAL DISASTER IN THE FOREST FUND BY SAVAGE AND WALD CRITERI A IN THE MATHCAD PROGRAM

UDC 630*2:502.174

Evkovich Irina Aleksandrovna – Master’s degree student, the Department of Logging Machinery, Forest Roads and Timber Production Technology. Belarusian State Technological University (13a, Sverdlova str., 220006, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: evcovich.irina@mail.ru

Protas Pavel Aleksandrovich – PhD (Engineering), Associate Professor, Assistant Professor, the Department of Logging Machinery, Forest Roads and Timber Production Technology. Belarusian State Technological University (13a, Sverdlova str., 220006, Minsk, Republic of Belarus). E-mail: protas@belstu.by

DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.52065/2519-402X-2024-276-15.

Key words: forest fund, natural disasters, forecasting, liquidation of consequences, MathCAD, game theory.

For citation: Evkovich I. A., Protas P. A. Forecasting the consequences of natural disaster in the forest fund by Savage and Wald criteria in the MathCAD program. Proceedings of BSTU, issue 1, Forestry. Nature Management. Processing of Renewable Resources, 2024, no. 1 (276), pp. 112–119 (In Russian). DOI: 10.52065/2519-402X-2024-276-15.

Abstract

To effectively eliminate the consequences of natural disasters in the forest fund and improve the quality of management decisions, a forecast of the dynamics of natural disasters, the costs of their elimination and the impact on forest ecosystems is required. Such a forecast can be obtained using predictive analytics methods based on the analysis of statistical data from past years. The article discusses the possibility of using game theory according to the Savage and Wald criteria to assess and predict the consequences of natural disasters in the forest fund. Based on the analysis of software methods that can be used to predict natural disasters in the forest fund, the feasibility of using the MathCAD software package has been established. A technique for solving this problem in the MathCAD software package is presented with a detailed description of the solution and a graphical interpretation of the results obtained. To solve problems of assessing and predicting the consequences of natural disasters in the forest fund, the features, necessary conditions and initial data of the characteristics of the objects under study and the parameters being determined were described, taking into account the developed algorithm in the MathCAD software package.

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